Liberals Gunning For February Election

With the budget - usually delivered in late February or March - likely to become a confidence showdown, the Liberals are planning a pre-emptive strike, several Liberals familiar with the strategy told The Globe and Mail. That means the new year could see a role reversal in the election posturing in the Commons, with Mr. Dion pushing to defeat the government, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper trying to delay. Even in a minority Parliament, the government controls many of the procedural levers, and can delay "opposition days" until after a budget is tabled, which would make it difficult for the Liberals to put forward a no-confidence motion. "We're going to go before the budget," one Quebec Liberal said. "The budget will be full of candy for everybody. He's going to have money for seniors, for youth, for everybody. If you [wait and] go on the budget, then it means you're opposing tax cuts, money for all those people, and the campaign will be on that." Only last month, Mr. Dion was forced to order his troops to abstain on confidence votes over the Conservatives' Throne Speech and mini-budget to avoid an election while public support for the Liberals was falling and their campaign plans were incomplete. But many insiders fear the party's credibility will suffer if it lets Mr. Harper govern for too long. And, shaken by an election scare, the party's organizers have been given a few crucial months to get ready. At least one more confidence vote is likely before Christmas, on a budget-implementation bill, but the Liberals plan to "suck it up one more time, and then go early in the new year," one Liberal said. Another Liberal strategist said: "[On what issue] we'll go is the question. I think people realize that just abstaining is not realistic. It sends the message that we are not ready for an election and that's not the case." However, the Liberals may not get the opportunity to bring the government down before the budget. A source said the Tories are considering pushing back "opposition days" until after the government's economic blueprint is tabled. Opposition parties get a certain number of days per session during which they can set the debate and, if they wish, call for no-confidence in the government - but the government has until March 26 to schedule seven opposition days. In 2005, Paul Martin's Liberal government pushed back opposition days when it was threatened with defeat. The hawks and doves in Liberal circles are still divided, with some of Mr. Dion's advisers, including principal secretary Johanne Sénécal, skeptical about rushing to the polls. Others would prefer to see whether the public inquiry into the relationship between former Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney and deal-maker Karlheinz Schreiber harms the Conservatives. And, of course, a fall in the polls might cause an about-face. ... http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071123.welection23/BNStory/National/

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