Conservative Moves Could Lift NDP (Not Liberals)

In Toronto Centre, the development is a shot in the arm for NDP efforts to beat Bob Rae, the New Democrat-turned-Liberal. In Guelph, it's a boost in hopes for "star" NDP candidate Tom King, the aboriginal author and broadcaster of CBC Radio's Dead Dog Café fame. The Conservatives stirred up considerable disarray among their own partisans last week when the national council told Mark Warner in Toronto Centre and Brent Barr in Guelph they wouldn't be allowed to run for the party. Both were shocked at their removals. Warner was told he was offside with the central party by campaigning on social and urban issues; Barr was told he wasn't canvassing enough. If these moves push supporters away from the Conservative party, there's a good chance in both ridings that some of that vote could end up with the NDP. The anti-Liberal vote, in other words, could be a little less split now in both ridings, where Liberals won in 2006, but also where those winning Liberals are stepping down. In Toronto Centre, where former cabinet minister and interim Liberal leader Bill Graham has retired, that could mean additional votes against Rae, facing his first run for Parliament as a Liberal. He has foes among Conservative-leaning voters in Ontario because of his time as an NDP premier in the 1990s. New Democrats, meanwhile, see him as a defector – or, as NDP Leader Jack Layton called Rae in a 2006 speech, "a turncoat." If the anti-Rae votes are split in Toronto Centre between the two parties, Rae's chances of winning are increased. But now, with Warner removed, some of that Conservative vote could drift to the NDP candidate, El-Farouk Khaki, a local immigration lawyer. Warner himself, however, doesn't believe the Conservatives want to help the NDP. In fact, Warner told the Star he believes the Conservatives actually would be happy to see Rae in the House of Commons. "They deny it when they talk to me," Warner said about his suspicions. However, he remains convinced Rae plays into the central Conservative attack strategy against Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion. "I think the whole campaign is Harper strong, Dion weak," Warner said. Rae in the Commons as a strong performer would make Dion look weaker, Warner argues. ... James Laxer, a long-time New Democrat and one-time leadership candidate for the party, wrote last year in Walrus magazine about the NDP's strategic decision in 2006 to focus all its energies, in league with Conservatives, on crushing Liberals. Jamey Heath, former communications adviser to Layton and author of the 2006 book Dead Centre, has also long made the argument that Liberals are the true adversaries of the NDP and that's where the strategy should be focused, even if it does mean working with the Conservatives. In Toronto Centre last election, the combined Conservative-NDP vote accounted for about 42 per cent of the popular vote. Graham won with 52 per cent, but it's not certain Rae could pull in that much support. In Guelph, the combined Tory-New Democrat votes in 2006, which totalled around 52 per cent, would have defeated the Liberals – who pulled in just 38 per cent of the popular vote. The ousters last week, combined with new players on the scene, could make those ratios a bit more interesting in the next election – most interesting, perhaps, to the NDP. http://www.thestar.com/article/273529 [Proofreader's note: this article was edited for spelling and typos on November 6, 2007]

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