Court Rules Gore is Wrong

.....The judge said: "This is distinctly alarmist and part of Mr Gore's "wake-up call". He agreed that if Greenland melted it would release this amount of water - "but only after, and over, millennia"."The Armageddon scenario he predicts, insofar as it suggests that sea level rises of seven metres might occur in the immediate future, is not in line with the scientific consensus."
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
It would be interesting to see the presented data. The claim “in the near future” is vague and alarmist, but still drives at a point.
The court statement that this will occur over 1000 years is unsupported in the literature. This defect in judgement also casts doubt onto the rigorousness of the mental processes of the judge.
See: Greenland's Jakobshavn glacier sounds climate change alarm

2).....The film claims that low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls "are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming"
.....but the judge ruled there was no evidence of any evacuation having yet happened.
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
Recall that the Cartert Atolls were evacuated due to sea level rise
Recall also: Several Pacific island states are threatened with total disappearance and 2 uninhabited islands in the Kiribati chain have already disappeared due to sea level rise.

3).....The documentary speaks of global warming "shutting down the Ocean Conveyor" - the process by which the Gulf Stream is carried over the North Atlantic to western Europe.
.....Citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the judge said that it was "very unlikely" that the Ocean Conveyor, also known as the Meridional Overturning Circulation, would shut down in the future, though it might slow down.
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
I concur with this determination. As I understand, the current is primarily wind –driven.

4).....Mr Gore claims that two graphs, one plotting a rise in C02 and the other the rise in temperature over a period of 650,000 years, showed "an exact fit".
.....The judge said that, although there was general scientific agreement that there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts".
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
Well let’s look at 650,000 years of greenhouse gas concentrations
It has been noted that in relation to The lag between temperature and CO2. - Gore’s got it right
In the above link, REALCLIMATE states that ...” more relevant is that CO2 has not gone above about 290 ppm any time in the last 650,000 years (at least), until the most recent increase, which is unequivocally due to human activities.”

5).....Mr Gore says the disappearance of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro was directly attributable to global warming,
.....but the judge ruled that it scientists have not established that the recession of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro is primarily attributable to human-induced climate change.
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
I cannot comment on this.

6).....The film contends that the drying up of Lake Chad is a prime example of a catastrophic result of global warming
.....but the judge said there was insufficient evidence, and that "it is apparently considered to be far more likely to result from other factors, such as population increase and over-grazing, and regional climate variability."
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
“Climate variability” is a description of “climate change.” For thirty years there has been a “unipolar variability,” which is unlikely to be just “statistical coincidence.”
This is press release from 2001, is from NASA's Earth Observing System: Africa's Disappearing Lake Chad
Irrigation only accounted for 5 percent of that decrease, with drier conditions accounting for the remainder. ... The Northern Africa Sahel region has experienced numerous devastating droughts over the last three decades. "Climate data has shown a great decrease in rainfall since the early 1960's largely due to a decrease in the number of large rainfall events,"

7).....Mr Gore blames Hurricane Katrina and the consequent devastation in New Orleans on global warming,
.....but the judge ruled there was "insufficient evidence to show that".
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
Inside courtrooms like this one, “insufficient evidence” was also unavailable for years to link health problems with smoking. Courts have different levels of “assuredness” than other forums.

8).....Mr Gore cites a scientific study that shows, for the first time, that polar bears were being found after drowning from "swimming long distances - up to 60 miles - to find the ice"
.....The judge said: "The only scientific study that either side before me can find is one which indicates that four polar bears have recently been found drowned because of a storm." That was not to say there might not in future be drowning-related deaths of bears if the trend of regression of pack ice continued - "but it plainly does not support Mr Gore's description".
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
Sounds reasonable enough, but I have not looked at the cases.

9).....Mr Gore said that coral reefs all over the world were being bleached because of global warming and other factors.
.....Again citing the IPCC, the judge agreed that, if temperatures were to rise by 1-3 degrees centigrade, there would be increased coral bleaching and mortality, unless the coral could adapt. However, he ruled that separating the impacts of stresses due to climate change from other stresses, such as over-fishing, and pollution was difficult
BRACEWELL COMMENTS:
Separating other factors from climate change is difficult.
It is instructive that the Australian government agency CSIRO authored: Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs
.....“Sea temperatures in many tropical regions have increased by almost 1°C over the past 100 years, and are currently increasing at ~1–2°C per century. Coral bleaching occurs when the thermal tolerance of corals and their photosynthetic symbionts (zooxanthellae) is exceeded. Mass coral bleaching has occurred in association with episodes of elevated sea temperatures over the past 20 years..”
.....“Since 1979, scores of reports of mass bleaching events have been made in the primary literature. Prior to 1979, reports of bleaching events in the primary literature are virtually non-existent and are restricted to largely unpublished observations...”
..... “So why have bleaching events increased in frequency since 1979? Given the strong correlation between bleaching events and high sea surface temperatures (Goreau and Hayes 1994), recent and historic SSTs should provide insight into the triggers of the recent series of strong mass bleaching episodes.”

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A Government spokesman said he would not make any further comment on the case today.

Note: Al Gore's 'nine Inconve... Greenland's Jakobshavn... Cartert Atolls were ev... Recall also: 650,000 years of greenh... The lag between tempera... unequivocally due to h... Africa's Disappearing L... Climate change, coral ...