Liberal Fortunes Tied To Harper

For these Ontarians, the real issue is not how much farther the Liberals fall. Rather it is whether they can ever be persuaded to trust the man most see as the only plausible alternative, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. This is pretty much where this province was during last year's election campaign. It wanted to kick the Liberals out of office. But at the last minute, it couldn't bring itself to vote for Harper. If I'm right (and I have to confess that this analysis is not based on scientific polling), then there are interesting implications for the two men. The first is that Martin may not be able to disentangle himself from the sponsorship scandal. True, most of the alleged abuses happened when Jean Chrétien was prime minister. True also that it was Martin who called the public inquiry under Justice John Gomery. People understand both of these things. But in the end, neither matters. People also understand that the same Liberal party has been running the country since 1993. And while those intimate with Liberal politics see sharp distinctions between Martin and Chrétien supporters — particularly in the scandal-ridden Quebec wing — to most people, they are all the same bunch. In any case, wasn't Paul Martin virtually Chrétien's co-prime minister? That's how the then-finance minister portrayed himself. It's an analysis that a good many Canadians bought. Which brings us to Martin's own problem: Now that he's running the show solo, he appears strangely incompetent. Nothing has worked out. He almost lost the election he was supposed to win handily. He was bullied by Quebec and Alberta on the 2004 health deal and then bullied again into handing over vast gobs of equalization money by Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams. Martin has revealed himself as such a target that even Ontario's Dalton McGuinty is trying to cadge an extra $5 billion. As leader of a minority government, Martin has few choices. But when forced to accept the politically inevitable (as he did when he refused to sign on to the U.S. missile defence scheme), he appears vacillating rather than shrewd. He has never managed to explain why he wants to be prime minister. He does not seem to relish even the game of politics. The fact that he changes his mind makes him no different from most leaders (which is why the "Mr. Dithers" label is unfair). But unlike more successful politicians, from Pierre Trudeau to Brian Mulroney, when Martin makes a U-turn, he looks manifestly embarrassed — as if he disapproves of himself. In the case of the sponsorship scandal, the more Martin tries to distance himself, the more he risks playing into the image of his own incompetence. I suspect most people believe him when he says he knew nothing of the affair. But the logical question then is: How could that be? How could a person who was finance minister, a senior Quebec Liberal and the second most important figure in government be so clueless as to have no idea of what was going on in his own backyard? Theoretically, Martin could win the next election. Voters in this province may hold their noses one more time. But this will happen only if Ontarians continue to think they have no other choice. If Harper is able to present himself as that choice, as a rational human being rather than a chilly neo-con fronting for a party of loons, Martin is finished. Over the last few months, the Conservative leader has been making a credible start on this front. It's this that should alarm the Liberals, not Gomery. original; http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1112997010908&call_pageid=970599109774&col=Columnist969907626796