Harper Waiting For Second-Term Majority To Really Push Deep Integration

The policy convergence between Harper's Tories and Martin's Liberals shouldn't surprise anyone. Unless you adhere to the philosophical wing that believes the increasing integration of North America can be reversed, the only option is to figure out how to manage interdependent economies that have begun to strain the continent's infrastructure. The real question is how far to push the pace of change--and here Harper is surprisingly, and uncharacteristically, modest. He noted with approval that officials of all three nations have been instructed to develop a cooperative approach to crisis management (including preparation for a possible bird-flu pandemic), collaborate on clean-energy programs and improve coordination on border security. But he also made clear that he wasn't going to rush into the ambitious agenda favored by some Canadian business leaders and academics toward establishing a common tariff and security zone. Instead, he was content to say of the U.S. President, "I believe he understands our issues."

Government insiders say Harper plans to concentrate on a few cross-border items--such as improving border infrastructure--and leave the bold continental policymaking to his hoped-for second term (as a majority leader). But Harper's soft approach could backfire. Bush's reduced popularity and an increasingly rebellious Congress raise doubts about whether the U.S. President is willing to spend his already diminished political capital on the issues that matter to Canada. Meanwhile in Ottawa, opposition M.P.s will pounce on any sign that Harper's much advertised tone change with Washington has failed to produce results.

Canada, in fact, might be ready for some straight talk about North America. As its neighbors grapple with domestic politics, Harper could take the lead by opening a national debate about the continent's future and Canada's place in it. He might argue that issues like softwood lumber will never go away until all three countries recognize the common challenges they face from an increasingly competitive world. "Canadians are looking for someone to exercise leadership on the border," says Carleton University trade-policy expert Michael Hart, who argues that the stakes are too high for the PM to wait for a comfortable majority at home. Adds Hart: "The future prosperity of Canada depends on the continued health of the North American economy." Even for the shrewdly cautious pols on Harper's team, that ought to carry weight.

full article: 49th Parallel: What's the Big Idea? [Proofreader's note: this article was edited for spelling and typos on April 3, 2006]

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