International Herald Tribune
According to Flannery, new and improved scientific data showed that the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions had reached about 455 parts per million [CO2 equivalent] by mid-2005, well ahead of scientists' previous calculations.
"We thought we'd be at that threshold within about a decade, that we had that much time. I mean, that's beyond the limits of projection, beyond the worst-case scenario as we thought of it in 2001," when the last major IPCC report was issued.
"What the report establishes is that the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is already above the threshold that can potentially cause dangerous climate change," Flannery told Australian Broadcasting Corp. late Monday.
"We are already at great risk of dangerous climate change, that's what these figures say, it's not next year or next decade, it's now."
Flannery is not a member of the IPCC, but said he based his comments on a review of the technical data included in the panel's three working group reports published earlier this year.
Greenhouse gas levels 'far worse than predicted'- ABC News
"I mean that's been beyond the limits of projection, beyond the worst-case scenario as we thought of it in 2001, and some of the other gases also have been produced on a larger scale than was easy to have imagined."
12 min VIDEO: Flannery on ABC’s Lateline TV
"What the report establishes is that the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is already above the threshold that could potentially cause dangerous climate change,"
These are measurements of gasses in the atmosphere – not model predictions.
"We've really seen an unexpected acceleration in the rate of accumulation of CO2 itself,"
"I mean that's been beyond the limits of projection, beyond the worst-case scenario as we thought of it in 2001, and some of the other gases also have been produced on a larger scale than was easy to have imagined."
We need to be talking about a very aggressive program for pulling gigatonnes out of the air.
‘Dangerous climate change is not in the next decade, not the next year – it is now.’
RECALL
Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"
The Arctic summer sea ice shrank by more than 20 percent below the previous 2005 record low in mid-September to 4.13 million sq km
"The reason so much (of the Arctic ice) went suddenly is that it is hitting a tipping point that we have been warning about for the past few years," James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies , told Reuters.
In Germany, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says Arctic sea ice has "already tipped".
James Hansen's New Climate Warning
NASA climate scientist, James Hansen, has just published a paper
(PDF) that warns the impending increase in temperature may be at 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees F), not at the 3 degrees Celsius as had been previously estimated, bringing us "dangerously close" to climate tipping points
[Proofreader’s note: this article was edited for spelling and typos on October 10, 2007]
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published a paper
Stumble It!
I wonder how dangerous a longer growing season will be, or how dangerous it will be to *not* have to heat up our homes as much?
I'm not about to get into a debate on the causes - natural or man made - of global warming but the first examples of downside of global warming that come to mind and have/are/will hit close to home are mountain pine beetle infestations, wildfires and glacial melt. Another one would be the (apparent) increase in and severity of hurricanes which are seeing landfall further north along the east coast of North America.
Man is not responsible for global warming but we are certainly contributing to it. Only the impact of our activities is debatable and I don't see how either side can prove their case. The point many seem to miss is, whether or not we are doing damage, it only makes sense to reduce our impact on the planet and atmosphere. The argument that curtailing pollution will harm the economy is false, it will only renew it.
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Everybody got to deviate from the norm
I agree it won't harm the economy to find ways to reduce the destruction of the environment, I'm not sure anyone is really arguing against that idea.
What a lot of people are arguing against, is putting a tax on CO2 production that will go into the pockets of who knows who to be spent on who know what.
In addition, all this absurd global warming fear mongering is unhelpful. All that's being done, is our kids are growing up thinking this false propaganda is the truth - ignorance is never a solution for anything.
That is precisely the argument that Harper harped on in order back out of the Kyoto Protocol and is the same crap Bush relies on to stay out of it.
"What a lot of people are arguing against, is putting a tax on CO2 production that will go into the pockets of who knows who to be spent on who know what. "
Yes and I disagree with that as well.
"In addition, all this absurd global warming fear mongering is unhelpful. All that's being done, is our kids are growing up thinking this false propaganda is the truth - ignorance is never a solution for anything."
Unproven yes but propaganda? Propagana by whom and for what purpose? I see no downside to conserving and protecting the environment. Why should we upset the natural balance if we don't have to?
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Everybody got to deviate from the norm
I meant nobody who is not a slithering snake is arguing against pollution reduction. Harper wants to bow out of the KP for all the wrong reasons, and that's definitely not a surprise.
"Yes and I disagree with that as well"
The taxation on CO2 and the inevitable mismanagement and theft of the loot will do nothing to prevent whatever doom awaits us. Instead of spending billions on infinite wars to control the dwindling supplies of fossil fuel, the money should be spent on finding healthier alternatives. But war and control is precisely what the powers that be want, which is one reason why only megalomaniacs end up "in power" and ordinary folks remain ordinary. The KP represents a turf war over who gets to control the burning of fossil fuel, and apparently a few notable megalomaniacs are in disagreement over who gets to control what and how much.
"Unproven yes but propaganda? Propaganda by whom and for what purpose? I see no downside to conserving and protecting the environment. Why should we upset the natural balance if we don't have to?"
Of course there is no downside with living in a more healthy and sustainable manner, but that's not how those who make money from an unhealthy and unsustainable lifestyle see it.
This whole global warming thing has gone out of control and has taken on a life of its own. The Global Warmists act like programmed cult members. They are not talking about reducing pollution levels or even saving the environment, they are talking about CO2 reduction as a means to prevent climate change, but that is not something humans have any control over. They are talking as if a few degrees of warming will result in a deadly catastrophe with nothing concrete to back up the fear mongering. Why are they trying to scare people? Who benefits from a population that is terrified of climate change, and how do people who are afraid react, are they more likely to react in a rational manner or not? Looks just like the old Hell, fire, and brim stone trick playing itself over again.
Look at the police state that grew by leaps and bounds almost the next day right after 9/11, who benefited from an irrational fear of terrorists that don't even exist? FEAR is an effective means of control.
I see no reason at all why anyone should be terrified from climate change. If it gets a lot colder, that's definitely not good, but that most likely won't happen over night or even in our life time, if it gets a lot warmer, that's not so bad (unless it gets really warm), and will be great for some people - perhaps even most people - but again it won't happen over night, and it won't be all that noticeable even in a life time.
While we don't have any control over the Earths orbit around the sun or how hot the sun burns, we can perhaps gain better control over the free for all destruction of the environment that's being fueled not by fossil fuels and the resulting CO2 production, but by 100% pure greed.
When we talk about temperature related to global warming, we must remember that we are talking about annual average temperatures. An increase by only a degree or two doesn't sound like much in Canada and may even help to increase our growing season but that won't be much of an advantage in a drought. Furthermore, what about regions at the edge of an existing desert.
1. Deserts are exanding.
Other examples...
2. Wildfires are increasing in size and severity.
3. Hurricanes are increasing in severity and are coming to more northerly latitudes.
4. Pests such as the mountain pine beetle are no longer being controlled by natural means (cold enough winters), meaning we have to use more chemicals to control them.
5. Glaciers are dissapearing.
The list of examples of how global warming is already affecting the planet goes on and on, including the rapid decline of certain species. To say that it won't have a noticeable effect until it gets either really warm or cold is to simply ignore reality.
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Everybody got to deviate from the norm
A warmer climate means the oceans will evaporate more rapidly meaning we'll experience a more humid climate.
"2. Wildfires are increasing in size and severity."
That's a human related problem due to fire prevention that leaves more to burn that otherwise would have burnt naturally.
"3. Hurricanes are increasing in severity and are coming to more northerly latitudes."
There's no statistical evidence to back up that claim, and so what even if it's true.
"4. Pests such as the mountain pine beetle are no longer being controlled by natural means (cold enough winters), meaning we have to use more chemicals to control them."
Another man made problem that really effects almost no one but those who care about cutting down the entire planet for profit. I cheer the beetle on.
"5. Glaciers are dissapearing."
Glaciers have been receding since the ice age ended. So, that sucks for people who like to ski down those things, again so what.
"The list of examples of how global warming is already affecting the planet goes on and on,"
The only constant thing about the earth and its climate is that it's always in a state of change.
" including the rapid decline of certain species."
Blame the weather, yeah sure. You're point the finger at the wrong culprit. Even before the birth of human civilization, humans have been causing extinctions, which thanks to modern day technology and a large population the problem has become critical. As you know, well before global warming became the latest scare craze, humans were being blamed for almost all extinctions.
"To say that it won't have a noticeable effect until it gets either really warm or cold is to simply ignore reality."
OK, but so far it's been business as usual.
>A warmer climate means the oceans will evaporate more rapidly meaning we'll experience a more humid climate.
Then why are deserts expanding?
"2. Wildfires are increasing in size and severity."
>That's a human related problem due to fire prevention that leaves more to burn that otherwise would have burnt naturally.
Score one for RG ;?)
"3. Hurricanes are increasing in severity and are coming to more northerly latitudes."
>There's no statistical evidence to back up that claim, and so what even if it's true.
Stats are being compiled, that doesn't mean you can't use them until the compilation is finished because statistical compilations are never finished. It is still early yes but stats are pointing in this direction. And so what? Well population densities is what. It won't mean anything to you, me and the rest of BC but it might mean something to the "few" who live on the eastern seaboard of the the US and eventually to those funny talkin' Canucks in the maritimes.
"4. Pests such as the mountain pine beetle are no longer being controlled by natural means (cold enough winters), meaning we have to use more chemicals to control them."
>Another man made problem that really effects almost no one but those who care about cutting down the entire planet for profit. I cheer the beetle on.
Man made? I don't follow.
"5. Glaciers are dissapearing."
>Glaciers have been receding since the ice age ended. So, that sucks for people who like to ski down those things, again so what.
Yes they've been shrinking but the rate at which they've been shrinking is increasing dramatically and don't give me any tripe about a smaller icecube melting faster than a bigger icecube. ;?)
They serve a much greater purpose than a ski slope. They are reserviors.
"The list of examples of how global warming is already affecting the planet goes on and on,"
>The only constant thing about the earth and its climate is that it's always in a state of change.
Uh huh
" including the rapid decline of certain species."
>Blame the weather, yeah sure. You're point the finger at the wrong culprit. Even before the birth of human civilization, humans have been causing extinctions, which thanks to modern day technology and a large population the problem has become critical. As you know, well before global warming became the latest scare craze, humans were being blamed for almost all extinctions.
I'm not blaming the weather. And I stand by the statement except the word "certain". I'd like to change that to "many". And there are many and again the decline has accelerated more in the past 15 to 20 years which coincides with the increase in human population, industrial growth of asia, global temperature increase, ozone depletion, etc, etc.
"To say that it won't have a noticeable effect until it gets either really warm or cold is to simply ignore reality."
>OK, but so far it's been business as usual.
Except that now some governments and some industry and most people are recognizing the problem and severity. And it's propaganda to you?
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Everybody got to deviate from the norm
Human activity is at least partly to blame, also the world has not warmed up very much over the last several decades to make a difference.
"Stats are being compiled, that doesn't mean you can't use them until the compilation is finished because statistical compilations are never finished. It is still early yes but stats are pointing in this direction."
You'll need several decades of data and probably more than that to compile anything that's statistically significant.
"Man made? I don't follow."
It should be obvious that a healthy forest is not one that's infested with forestry workers. The pine beetle infestation came about after an unnatural concentration of trees and everything else in the forest were cut down and after pine trees were planted to cover up the mess by the forestry industry. Another factor, is that the beetle is being unnaturally transported long distances through the movement of infected cut down trees.
"Yes they've been shrinking but the rate at which they've been shrinking is increasing dramatically"
Supposedly they are shrinking faster than before, but no one knows exactly why (other than obviously the weather has been warmer in those regions), and no one knows yet if the faster rate of decline is temporary or if it is a new established trend.
"They serve a much greater purpose than a ski slope. They are reserviors."
Yes, but glaciers are not needed as reservoirs when it rains instead of snows. When it snows there's no water only ice, which is why the seasonal glacial melt is usually a good thing. Without glaciers, we'll have to store the water in other ways or use less of it.
"Uh huh"
Yepper.
"the decline has accelerated more in the past 15 to 20 years which coincides with the increase in human population, industrial growth of asia, global temperature increase, ozone depletion, etc, etc."
You threw in temperature as a cause of extinctions, but it should be obvious that minor climate variations of late are an insignificant factor compared to all the other factors you've listed which boil down to no more than greedy humans raping and pillaging the planet to death.
"Except that now some governments and some industry and most people are recognizing the problem and severity. And it's propaganda to you?"
Bullshit is bullshit and that's how I'm calling this latest fear mongering craze. As I've stated before, it's obvious that greed driven human activity is the primary cause for the unhealthy state of the planet, and pointing the finger at CO2 production as being the main cause of everything from the planet warming up to mass extinctions is to ignore reality.
What we're really talking about is a behavioral problem with humans in general that really has nothing at all to do with what kind of fuel they burn.
It is true that CO2 production is currently tightly correlated with how much of a mess is being done to the planet, since human activity in general causes harm, and the more activity there is the more CO2 will be produced in the process, but that's primarily because we burn mostly fossil fuel. The destruction will continue no matter if CO2 is reduced unless there's no alternative energy source found, and/or there's a massive shift in how people across the planet think and behave.
Exactly!
"The destruction will continue no matter if CO2 is reduced unless there's no alternative energy source found, and/or there's a massive shift in how people across the planet think and behave."
Well I'm glad we agree that environmental problems in general are real.
They way you tie global warming to the bigger problem of human destructive activity is how I tie global warming to the broader scope of how to motivate the masses/leaders to fix the problems that we've created.
Global warming is not the only problem out there and yes there certainly are other contributing reasons for the challenges the planet is facing.
Global warming is a big problem that not only creates it's own problems but (the portion of it that we are responsible for) is a result of many other problems. CO2 is not the only GHG and to say that people will still over-fish (for example) if we stop producing GHG's so why bother, is not to ignore reality but is just as ridiculous.
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Everybody got to deviate from the norm
People who are afraid will react in ways that tend to be counter-productive, and it's worse when they are kept ignorant. Worse yet, governments are very adept at taking advantage of a fearful and ignorant population to meet their own ends, and that is exactly what we see happening around us.
The 9/11 operation created fear and ignorance that allowed governments to start two major wars and install a police state. It will take decades to undo the damage that was done in only a few years time.
Along with unseen evil terrorists lurking around in the shadows ready to explode on command, we're now being told that the world will soon overheat and flood over and get dryer and we'll start to starve UNLESS we agree to a tax on CO2 production that will favor the rich over the poor.
Come on, you'd think that we would only get fooled so many times by this kind of nonsense.
Alternatively, if you were to start listing all the problems facing the planet and how we have to deal with each one separately, any normal human being would simply say "well what do you expect me to do about it?".
Furthermore, if you don't deal with the problem of for example a warming planet, you will not be able to help the starving polar bears.
So we see the polar bears starving because their hunting season is shortened by disappearing ice in Hudson's Bay, due to global warming. The only possibility (and it's a stretch) to stop the population from disappearing all together, would be to reverse the warming of the planet. Clearly that can't be done - and certainly not by next week or year or decade, ad nauseum. But by trying to put the brakes on our own contribution to global warming, we can at least prevent the next "polar bear" species from coming to the brink. It isn't a lye, RG. It's happening and humans are upsetting the balance through a number of means. Having a defeatist attitude and "cheering on the beetle" will do nothing but hurt any attempts to wake people up.
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Everybody got to deviate from the norm