Canadian Catharsis

Posted on Tuesday, June 07 at 15:36 by abacus
My personal scenario looks something like this: The Liberal Party will remain the dominant party in Canada - in fact, I think it will come out even stronger once all this is over. The Conservative Party of Canada will most likely fall apart and open the door to the revival of the former Progressive Conservative Party. But even then, it will remain a fringe party only. The NDP will see its numbers go up and may even become the official opposition. It is quite clear, I think, that Canadians are moderate and mainstream voters, with the majority situated either in the centre or to the left. This alone will boost the fortunes of both the Liberals and the NDP. When you look at Alberta, you can see a similar trend: the Tories have been around for years and are beginning to look extremely tired. Ralph Klein, too, seems to have lost his verve. At the same time, we're seeing the steady climb and rise in popularity of the Alberta Liberal Party, a forward-looking and progressive party that appeals to an ever increasing number of Albertans. My guess is that they will see an astronomic boost once Klein has resigned. The other issue involves future changes to our voting system. Will we see proportional representation? I think so. By adopting this, shall we say, European system, we might even see coalition governments, which is a very common phenomenon in Europe (e.g., Germany has had a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the Green Party). If this happens, the most likely outcome in Canada would be a coalition government formed by the Liberal Party and the NDP. Interesting and exciting times, as I said. I am glad I am around to witness it all. [Proofreader's note: this article was edited for spelling and typos on June 7, 2005]

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  1. Wed Jun 08, 2005 1:33 am
    I agree with much of what you have said -- of course, the Progressive Conservative revival is already happening under the name the Progressive Canadian party, PC Party for short. The one thing I disagree with is your prediction for it's re-growth into a major political force. We are not sure where the tipping point is -- where our steady growth becomes exponential, but it will indeed happen. Canada needs a mainstream alternative.

    Progressive Conservatives will be there to fill that need.

    Jim Love
    President
    Progressive Canadian (PC) Party
    jim.love@pcparty.org

  2. Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:51 am
    This sounds more like wishful thinking. The liberals barely got elected as a minority government and you think corruption charges and bribing Stronach to cross the floor (it's one thing to change party's because of beliefs, something else is going on when you get a cabinet post out of it) not to mention more charges of attempting bribing of other PC's. There's a good reason that liberals were scared to death about an election. That somehow the NDP will become a powerhouse out of the whole thing is likewise spurious. That's the thing about predictions, just about any craziness can be conjured up.

    For proportional representation we should remember that scandals always become public at points when the voting public is feeling reactionary, because it completely tunes canadians out of politics completely. With PR failing in BC most politicians will use that as an excuse for 'going slowly', if at all. Quebec's form of PR is just a variant of the usual electoral system, even free vote canada doesn't endorse it and they usually support any change. In New Brunswick the committee supports a referendum but most people don't even know about the existence of the committee for legislative democracy.

    I agree that these are exciting times, just as they always have been for those involved. For democratic initiatives check out scottreid.com where the conservative member has put four resolutions out to his constituency and running his own referenda. He was one of the few who rejected the MP pay raise and as his voters voted, he has donated the raise to the local emergency health services. So far they have trained every high school student in the riding in CPR and have bought defribulators for the clinics. This years raise will buy them for the police and train the officers since they are usually first on the scene of an accident. Funny, I haven' heard of many liberals or NDP doing any of this.

  3. Wed Jun 08, 2005 3:33 am
    This is not wishful thinking, it's incredibly naive and is politically motivated to say the least. Few people would include the words 'social searching' and 'Belinda Stronach' in the same sentence except perhaps Belinda herself. Her motive was pure ambition, nothing more. So let's not dress it up and call it something it's clearly not.

    And the fact that you 'believe' the Liberal Party will remain the dominant party in Canada only reveals your true colours. You're very clever in trying to influence other people (and most notably voters) by making yourselves appear consciences and fair.

    What you are 'wishing upong a star for' is a one party dictatorship. You have the nerve to put forth the idea that it will be your party that will 'benevloently' rule over we lowly mortals. What utter fluff and nonsense!

    How out of touch you are with your own province! The Liberals aren't going to rise in Alberta, but fall quietly and miserably with a whimper. And they have no one to blame but themselves.

    abacus, I'm surprised! After much 'soul searching' you've easily made the transition from Conservative to Liberal nicely by adopting their tactics of diversion and distraction.

    If we were are to see proportional representation in this country, it will be inspite of your party. They refuse to appoint elected Albertan senators, what makes you think they'd ever endorse electoral reform? I should point out that if you're pinning your hopes on these issues, then you joined the WRONG party!

    These are exciting times, but for reasons I doubt you'll approve of. People are finally waking up and realising what little the Liberal Party of Canada has to offer our nation. Some of them will vote Conservative and some will vote New Democrat. Sadly many will vote for the Bloc in Quebec, no thanks to your party's actions.

    But I think what is most 'thrilling' about this point in Canadian history is that people are finally recognising the real problems that exist in this country. They are starting to open their minds to new possible solutions, and are closing their ears to Liberal propaganda. But most importantly they're opening their minds to new political opportunities, realities, and options (ie. new political parties).

    The only party that will be replaced is your pathetic bunch of miscreants and liars led by a lame duck Prime Minister. Who knows what the future holds, but these are exciting times!

    ---
    "I pick the bones of what's been done. I'm the revolution when the door is shut. I bite the hand that slaps me senseless. I am far too Canadian" -SotW

  4. by abacus
    Wed Jun 08, 2005 3:44 am
    Jim,

    Please re-read my comments. I said that it will remain a fringe party at best.

  5. by abacus
    Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:16 am
    I have drawn these conclusions based on what Canadians want (not my own personal preference. The majority of Canadians are centrists or somewhat left-of-centre, which is why the Liberal party will remain the domain party. I have also drawn on several sources for my conclusions.

    I hope I deciphered your comments correctly, which wasn't easy with all those spelling and grammar mistakes (you study at Athabasca. How did you pass ENGL255???)

  6. Wed Jun 08, 2005 5:39 am
    I don't know what centrists mean but we need only look at the last election results. Polls were showing a conservative majority government right up to the last two weeks. There are lots of issues involved, but if you check the media you'll note an awful lot of fear mongering. I know my wife voted simply because of the fear of a conservative government. You can even go further to elections canada and in Ontario, which is the only province that keeps the liberals in government, many of the ridings which they won were very close. They won most of the rural ridings, and it was only in the large urban areas that the numbers were much higher for the liberals. Here in Waterloo it wasn't even close, but this is a university town with an extremely multi-cultural population.

    Since the last election Martin's party has gotten even worse, the 'dithers' remark has more canadians disrespecting him as not being able to effectively lead. It's no surprise that when you look around the country the purse strings have been opened and all of a sudden its payout time. From gas tax to transportation funds they are pretty much buying votes really.

    So to my mind I really don't share those ideas about liberals being some big powerhouse. I'm not commenting on Alberta because I have no idea what goes on out there. Here in Ontario they also get to deal with McGuinty's broken promises, yet another albatross. If any party is going down in flames I would put money on the liberals rather than the conservatives. The big hot button themes in the last election were social issues like gay marriage and abortion and many people feared a conservative party with an agenda on those issues. However, at some point some of those people have to weigh the lack of implications in their own lives (at least the hetero males and women who have no intention of ever getting an abortion) to the perception of rampant corruption of the current government. Canadians only have one way of expressing their political displeasure-and that's by voting another party. Keep in mind also that it only takes the 'swing votes' to make all the difference in the world. In 1992 not that many people abandoned the conservative party yet they were left with only two members. It only takes about 100,000 southern ontarians changing their minds to put a conservative majority in the house.

  7. by abacus
    Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:02 am
    Right now, the Liberals are in the lead in Ontario at 45%, with the CPC very far behind. It would take a miracle for Ontarians to swing towards the CPC - not very likely, given the Grewal affair and how it's been handled by Harper and his Reform/Alliance cohorts. Right now, and especially in Ontario, the Conservatives are seen as corrupt as the next party. So, they can't win on that "the Liberals are crooks" platform any longer.

    You look at the Policy Declaration of the CPC, and what you find is

    a) proof of the "hidden agenda" (in fact, it's not exactly hidden)

    and

    b) proof that, apart from a), all their policies are principles that Liberals have subscribed to for years (e.g., now, all of a sudden, the CPC supports the CBC and funding for the CBC, which is a bold-faced lie, because every little child knows that the CPC and its supporters hate the CBC and want to abolish it)

    If you don't believe me, go to the website of the CPC for a PDF copy or go to my blog where you'll also find that link.

  8. Wed Jun 08, 2005 2:35 pm
    Not your own personal preference? And they say Liberals aren't deceitful! Unfortunately your party has a very narrow-minded view of what Canadians want, and is all too content to lecture the nation instead of listen to people. At least those who do not vote Liberal.

    Polls mean nothing, especially at a time like this. It's interesting that the Liberals would put their faith in these volatile polls, especially in places such as Ontario. When they were up for the Conservatives, the Liberals wrote them off. Now that they're up for the Liberals suddenly (in their minds) we can look forward to years and years of Liberal government? Gee, hate to rain on your parade, but that's not how things work.

    So you survey say, 1,500 people out of a population of over 11,000,000 people and you think that gives you a good idea as to what the people of Ontario want? With logic as warped as that I guess you can claim to know what Canadians want.

    I've seen polls done by the Globe & Mail with over 30,000 people responding saying they will vote for a new party in the next federal election which can mean all most anything. Especially when considering that the Globe & Mail is a Liberal friendly newspaper, that poll is far more interesting than other polls done thus far. Polls can mean very little I'm afraid (as mentioned above) they can swing the other way at the last possible moment. You should know better.

    The election campaign hasn't even begun yet and the Gomery Report has yet to be delivered, there are several factors that can influence voters during an election. It will not take a miracle for Ontarians to vote against the Conservatives, only Liberal fear-mongering and scare tactics. Paul Martin will stand in front of the nation and proclaim his party to be the 'lesser of two evils' (as if that is something to be proud of, but apparently some Liberals are?) and will hope that that will be enough to get the Party elected. Pathetic.

    You're saying the Grewal affair will have a negative impact on the Conservative Party? Are you deluded? If the sky is blue and not working for you, say it's red and skip ahead. That's how Liberals spin their version of events so it's nice to see you picking up the tricks of the trade with such ease!

    The Grewal Affair (at best) will have a negative impact on BOTH the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party alike. And rightly so. The Conservatives are seen as many things here in Ontario, but corrupt is not one of them. How can they be corrupt when they haven't even been in power for the past twelve yeras? Such distortion of the facts and utter nonsense. Next you'll say ADSCAM was their fault (and I wouldn't put it past you to try something like that!).

    No, I'm afraid the vote for the Liberals is not going to go up in the next election. It's going to go down in the West and in Quebec. Ontario may vote the Liberals in to power again, we'll just have to wait and see. The only region where the Liberals can pick up votes is in the Maritimes. This is far more realitic than your biased nonsense abacus, and it comes from someone who has no vested interest in either the Liberal Party or Conservative Party.

    But please, do continue to point out my spelling mistakes in the future.

    ---
    "I pick the bones of what's been done. I'm the revolution when the door is shut. I bite the hand that slaps me senseless. I am far too Canadian" -SotW

  9. by avatar Jesse
    Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm
    <blockquote> What you are 'wishing upong a star for' is a one party dictatorship. You have the nerve to put forth the idea that it will be your party that will 'benevloently' rule over we lowly mortals. </blockquote> To be fair, *every* party wants to be the only party, without opposition. It's an integral part of the party system.<p>---<br>Every time you complain about the moderators, god kills a kitten.

  10. Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:47 pm
    Parties always change their minds, that's why my favourite saying is "the difference between citizens initiatives and politicians is that once a vote is held the initiative doesn't change it's mind". The conservatives may have been against the CBC, even though during the last election I downloaded their party platform and I never saw any such mention. The liberals have completely gutted the CBC and as an independant producer I find serious problems with the CBC in its primary function. However, I wouldn't support disbanding it, and the idea that the conservative party simply realized that most people didn't agree with their policy and so they changed it would seem to be a plausible explanation.

    It is the fear factor, but we can't hold that against the liberals, it is in fact the only weapon that a ruling party has. WHen an opposition comes along and says 'we're going to do what they did but without the corruption', well, what else are you going to run on? As mentioned elsewhere there is ample reason to be fearful of the drastic changes that conservatives will make. The liberals have incrementally indoctrinated our civil service with public-private partnerships and I have no doubt that conservatives will ramp that up to levels that will imperil many unions.

    The fact that Martin is a former CEO who still effectively runs a mammoth corporation which has benefited from his taxation policies don't help them any. The only good thing I could see coming out of this is that if it did play out long enough we'd see some real power going back to representatives because the leaders are so unpopular. Unfortunately the whole system is designed to self destruct and force another election before any substancial changes are made.

    As for polls, they are reasonably helpful, but certainly not enough to paint any concrete picture. This is why I typically avoid making generalizations about 'what canadians will do'. So much depends on who conducts the poll and its controls that even in aggregate they are incomplete. However we can judge what happened last time and decide what has occurred that makes people likely to switch party allegiances. A person can literally change their mind on their way to the poll, that's why signs aren't allowed on that day.

    If I were forced into a prediction, which I guess I'm not but why not shoot off my mouth when I have the chance-I'd predict a .........hmmm, actually I guess I have no idea so forget it. The maritimes will vote liberal now that the purse has been opened, that's almost the only sure thing, but some areas may see a switch to the conservatives. And every seat counts.

  11. Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:47 am
    Quite the self-serving analysis. Liberal hegemony not only maintained but strengthened, with social democrats as the opposition. The only thing missing is Pierre Trudeau coming back from the dead and nationalizing the oil industry.

    Hope you don't go blind doing that.

  12. Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:27 am
    Ah Pierre, I do miss him. Don't tease me.
    Here's a joke:

    The top ten reasons for Canadians to be placed on the secret no-fly list in 2006:

    1. You're a Liberal appointed Senator (Just like Ted Kennedy)
    2. You know how to spell, punctuate, and blog on the Internet.
    3. You wrote a letter to the Prime Minister about 'deep integration' and used angry words.
    4. You belatedly realize your cheap family vacation to Cuba is routed through U.S. airspace
    5. Your name evokes an image of exotic lands and you flew from Moncton to Toronto in 2005
    6. You belong to a political organization not registered or known in the lower 48 (NDP,Bloq,Liberal, etc)
    7. That computer guy from Seattle whom you dated twice in January 1996, won't let go of the 'relationship'
    8. Your business competitors' top salesman saw you photographing your hotel at the Las Vegas Convention
    9. Your employees didn't appreciate the comment about sick days and think you're spending way too much time at the head office in Dallas.
    10. Your ex-wife thinks you're a sociopath, is very upset you have visitation rights, and thinks you should drive from Halifax to Vancouver for your weekend visit with your son. Her boyfriend supports her 100% in this.

  13. Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:31 am
    "If we were are to see proportional representation in this country, it will be inspite of your party. They refuse to appoint elected Albertan senators, what makes you think they'd ever endorse electoral reform? I should point out that if you're pinning your hopes on these issues, then you joined the WRONG party!"

    Um, of course, I hope you realize that if you wanted electoral reform in Alberta, you shouldn't vote for the provincial conservatives. In fact, if you want a more open democracy in Alberta, you should vote anything but the Alberta PCs. Afterall, they call anyone who asks for proportional representation a "loser" or a "whiner". The Alberta PCs and the Federal Liberals are two sides of the same coin -- which is why I'm a Liberal on the provincial level but a "free agent" on the Federal level.

  14. Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:10 pm
    There's a difference between hating the CBC and wanting to abolish it. It's pretty easy to understand why a Conservative would have problems with a public broadcaster that promotes social democratic values and demonizes conservatives using money taken from taxpayers.

    Imagine how pissed off you would be if the National Post were government-funded. But no, conservatives have to *pay* for their media access. Liberals and socialists get to pick our pockets for theirs.



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