BMD Poll False

In addition to writing a short letters, it would be very useful to send Project Ploughshare's news release to all your email lists so people have the information.

Once again....

1) WRITE A SHORT LETTER AND
2) DO IT RIGHT NOW OR YOU CHANCE OF WRITING IT DECREASES BY 75%.

Key messages:

1) Canadians clearly oppose Canada joining the totally discredited and dangerous missile defence system being built by George Bush.

2) The Pollara Company (which has long ties to the Liberal party and government) poll is full of errors in its assumptions and facts and cannot be trusted

Key points:
* according to Project Ploughshares: "This [CanWest] story includes several errors, the headline is not borne out in the text, and it never discloses the actual polling questions on which it's various conclusions are based."

* While the [CanWest] headline says Canadian support BMD, the actual story and the poll say 49% of Canadians are opposed and 44% in favour. [PP news release]

* The story and apparently the polling questions then mistakenly link BMD to Northern Command NORTH COM). Sixty percent of Canadians are said to "want Canada to be a full partner in NORTH COM." The question is irrelevant because Canada is not part of NORTH COM, and won't become part of it because NORTH COM is a strictly US national command. [PP news release]

* The story is also in error when it says BMD "would require upgrading existing U.S. early warning radar stations in Canada." There are no ballistic missile warning radars in Canada, nor are there any planned for Canada. The radars of the North Warning System in Northern Canada are there to detect aircraft and have no capacity to identify ballistic missiles.

[PP news release]

* While we cannot trust a poll that contains so many errors, done by a pollster who for years was a paid consultant for the Liberal Party, we can trust Ipsos-Reid, a truly independent pollster who last March published the following results: "77% agree that Canada's limited military spending should be used to enhance our abilities in peacekeeping and conflict resolution rather than trying to maintain multi-purpose forces intended for heavy combat alongside U.S.military forces." (Ipsos-Reid, March 2004).

69% disagreed that "Canada should actively support the Bush administration's missile defence system even if it may require dedicating military spending to the program or allowing US missile launchers in Canada"(69%)."

(Ipsos-Reid, March 2004).

Also...

"7 in 10 Canadians want the government's spending priority to be healthcare or education, and less than 1 in 10 thinks it should be defence." (Compas, April 2002).

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HERE'S A SAMPLE LETTER:

I think the public is being badly served when a professional polling firm and the country's biggest newspaper chain promote polling results based on false assumptions and incorrect data that distort Canadians? real beliefs. This is what happened on Tuesday when CanWest newspapers (including the National Post) carried a headline that said Canadian supported the US ballistic missile defence program. Even the story itself contradicted the headline - telling us that 49% were actually OPPOSED and 44% in favour.

But the polling questions weren't even included.

Furthermore, the story and poll mistakenly linked BMD to NORTH COM -the US Northern Command claiming 60% of Canadians are said to "want Canada to be a full partner in NORTH COM." But according to the peace group Project Ploughshares, Canada is not part of NORTH COM, and will never be part of it because NORTH COM is a strictly US national command.

Canadians know this is an expensive and dangerous boondoggle - denounced by 49 US generals and hundreds of knowledgeable US scientists. In an Ipsos-Reid poll last March 77% agreed that Canada's limited military spending should be used to enhance our peacekeeping and 69% opposed our participation in missile defence.

Sincerely,

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New Release: Project Ploughshares, Oct 5, 2004

Re Robert Fife, "Majority of Canadians back missile shield" (Oct 5/04)

This story includes several errors; the headline is not borne out in the text, and it never discloses the actual polling questions on which it's various conclusions are based. What little hard information there is suggests results that are contradicted by the headline. It reports that when the question of support for ballistic missile defence (BMD) is considered on its own, 49% of Canadians are opposed and 44% in favour.

The story and apparently the polling questions then mistakenly link BMD to Northern Command (NORTH COM). Sixty percent of Canadians are said to "want Canada to be a full partner in NORTH COM. The question is irrelevant because Canada is not part of NORTH COM, and won't become part of it because NORTH COM is a strictly US national command. Canada and the US are linked through NORAD, and NORAD has missile detection and tracking role that is now to be related to BMD, but Canada has no part in NORTH COM.

Having established that Canadians, inexplicably, want to be part of NORTH COM (the actual polling question on which this conclusion is based is not reported), the poll then apparently links ballistic missile defence to Canada becoming part of NORTH COM. Despite the fact that Canada is not and will not be part of the US national command, NORTH COM, the poll nevertheless concludes that "the slimmest majority you ever saw" of Canadians favours BMD if it brings us into NORTH COM. How does any of the above justify a headline that trumpets Canadian backing of BMD?

The story is also in error when it says BMD "would require upgrading existing U.S. early warning radar stations in Canada." There are no ballistic missile warning radars in Canada, nor are there any planned for Canada. The radars of the North Warning System in Northern Canada are there to detect aircraft and have no capacity to identify ballistic missiles.

Finally, the story refers to Bill Graham, the Defence Minister, as "the Foreign Affairs Minister."

Given the absence of any explanation of the polling questions, and given the presence of serious factual errors, there is little in this story that is credible.

Ernie Regehr

Executive Director
Project Ploughshares

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Slim majority of Canadians want to join U.S. missile-defence plan

Robert Fife

CanWest News Service

October 5, 2004

OTTAWA -- A slim majority of Canadians believe it is in the country's interest to embrace the development of the U.S. ballistic-missile-defence shield for North America, although they have deep reservations about the plan.

A Pollara poll, obtained by CanWest News Service, also shows Canadians accept the Liberal government's assertions that failure to join the contentious missile project could jeopardize Canada's role in the new U.S. Northern Command military structure, known as Northcom.

Sixty per cent want Canada to be a full partner in Northcom, established after 9/11 to protect the continent from global threats including nuclear or biological strikes from rogue states. Thirty per cent are opposed to Northcom, according to the Sept. 27-30 poll of 1,688 Canadians.

However, the poll found Canadians are deeply ambivalent about the U.S. technology that would use ground-based interceptor rockets to shoot down incoming warheads.

A narrow majority of 49 per cent -- compared to 44 per cent in favour -- would reject Canada's participation if it weren't for their concern that Canada could be cut out of U.S. decisions on continental security.

Asked if they would support Canada's involvement in missile defence if it meant being part of Northcom, 48 per cent said yes, while 44 per cent were opposed.

"It does show absolutely that there is a majority -- although the slimmest majority you ever saw -- for missile defence once it is tied into Northcom," said Pollara chairman Michael Marzolini, the former chief pollster for the Liberal party.

"This mirrors almost every major issue that causes us to look at our relationship with the U.S."

Support for missile-defence is high in Atlantic Canada (56 per cent) and the Prairie provinces (56 per cent) while Ontario is split down the middle, with 49 per cent in favour and 46 per cent opposed.

"Only in Quebec and to a lesser extent in B.C. is there more opposition than support," said Marzolini, noting that 53 per cent of Quebecers and 50 per cent of British Columbians are opposed.

Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Graham has signalled Ottawa is prepared to join the U.S. project, although negotiations are still underway.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20.