What's more, the squeeze is poised to worsen significantly over the medium term, in view of the government's election promise to shut down five coal-fired plants by 2007. This source accounts for a striking one-quarter of the province's current power capacity. Further, about 70 per cent of Ontario's nuclear capacity will need to be replaced or refurbished over the next decade.
Faced with these significant risks to the system's ongoing reliability, the government has hedged its position on shutting down the coal-fired generators by saying that it will not put Ontario's consumers in jeopardy.
But, while the choice of keeping these units active until the supply can be replaced would greatly reduce the threat of an all-out power crisis in 2007, it will not address the recent, unsustainable trend of demand growth outstripping that of supply. Nor will it resolve the challenges on the nuclear front. Clearly, there is a grave need to alter the status-quo path.
The good news is that the McGuinty government appears to be moving in the right direction. In order to enhance supply and diversify its energy sources, Ontario is exploring the possibility of developing hydroelectric projects in both Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador in co-operation with the two respective provincial governments.
Furthermore, the government has got the message that the private sector will need to form a key cog in the wheel. Boosting supply and improving electricity infrastructure will come at a hefty price tag — as much as $60 billion to $75 billion in the province over the next two decades. And, with the government facing a large structural fiscal deficit, opening the door to more private-sector involvement, both through private ownership of assets and public-private partnerships, could assist greatly in covering these costs.
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