Why It's Not Working In Afghanistan

I heard on the CBC news this morning that a major offensive involving Canadian troops is about to begin. Recalling previous Iraqi offensives, the occupiers are sending out notices to civilians to evacuate prior to the offensive. Such a thing can only mean that they intend to do a Fallujah style operation, where anything that moves is killed.

As the Afghan war escalates, the atrocities we've seen occuring in Iraq will also happen in Afghanistan, only this time around Canadian troops will be commiting the war crimes.

"Such a thing can only mean that they intend to do a Fallujah style operation, where anything that moves is killed."

Incorrect assumption. You don't send out prior notice of an operation if you expect enemy resistance, and unless you want the enemy to know your plans.

Perhaps the intention is to sweep the areas for weapons caches and reduce the Taliban's ability to make nasty. Or, to move the Taliban out to another location that is already occupied by allies (IE: ambush). If you know that the enemy is in locations A and B, and you tell them you are going to A (and are the superior force) then you can expect them to consolidate on B. And you can expect some surprises when you get to A.

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"I think it's important to always carry enough technology to restart civilization, should it be necessary." Mark Tilden

"You don't send out prior notice of an operation if you expect enemy resistance, and unless you want the enemy to know your plans."

The feeling of deja vu is overwelming. I'm going on past experience with this one. In Iraq, it was well documented that the US gave out plenty of advanced warning prior to leveling Fallujah. The Fallujah atrocity came about after it was clear that the resistance was growing well beyond control and support for the war at home was dwindeling. The same situation appears to be happening with the Afghanistan campaign. Military commanders are not known for learning from past mistakes (otherwise we would not be in Afghanistan at all), therefore it would not surprise me to see another Fallujah style attack happen.

However I agree, we won't know what will actually happen in this case until after credible word of the offensive manages to trickle out.

Doing a little further research, my latter assumption appears correct. This announcement is a challenge to the Taliban.

The area they are going into near Kandahar is a stonghold, and no matter what they do in the rest of Khandahar province, they will lose if they don't secure this area. It was where the Soviets basically lost to the Mujahadeen, which is why it's so important to the Taliban to remain strong there.

So, the Canadians are coming. The Taliban can stand and fight, or leave. If they leave, all the Afghanis who have been standing idly by waiting to see who prevails will see the allies winning and support them. If the Taliban show up, they will be outgunned and lose. When they hear 'The Maple Leaf Forever' on the pipes - it's time to get out of Dodge.

The Germans learned what it was to deal with Canadian troops. Vimy Ridge, The Somme, Dieppe, Ypres, Kap'Yong . . .and soon, Khandahar to add to that list.

And once again, Canadians will still think our forces are only peacekeepers.

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"I think it's important to always carry enough technology to restart civilization, should it be necessary." Mark Tilden

Fallujah was considered to be a Sunni resistance "stronghold" - a word used by propagandists to make a populated area full of civilians look like a fortress. What they mean by "stronghold" is an area where the resistance is being supported by the local population. We're not talking about isolated "Taliban", we're taling about local Afghans.

Who are the Taliban? Remember that in Iraq we were initially told that only foreign fighters were causing all the problems. Later on we were told that Sunni militants loyal to Saddam and foreign fighters were to blame, now they don't talk about it anymore, lumping everyone in under the generic banner of "insurgent".

The US gave advanced warning prior to attacking Fallujah. They leveled the whole city. The resistance kept on growing anyway.

The basic truth is that any military operation that destroys peoples lives will turn the general population against the occupation, as if the locals even need a reason to turn against an occupation army, which by default most people will be against out of principle alone. Imagine if GW Bush sent in American troops to topple our shitty Harper government because he was not bending down low enough to his master. While most of us will be happy to see Harper get roughed up and forcebly disposed, I think it's safe to say that we won't be agreeable to having US soldiers messing around with our lives on a daily basis, even if they offer us free Happy Meals as bribes. Eventually an armed resistance will get formed, and persistent attacks on US troops will begin. The entire country will be decalred as a "stronghold", and the bombs will fall.

Canadian soldiers cannot win this fight by thumping their chests and killing people. Inevitably some of the victims will be innocents caught in the cross fire, and no matter how they died or who killed them, the occupation forces will get blamed for it.

Dr, Caleb, we'll see what happens. My guess is that we'll be still talking about this situation 2 years from now, at which point the situation will be worse, not better.

We'll have to wait and see.