- The Guardian,
- Wednesday March 12 2008
As I approach my 72nd birthday, I have reluctantly achieved the position of elder, and it is mindboggling to reflect on the changes that have occurred in my lifetime. The population of the world has tripled, while technology has exploded from early radio, telephones and propeller planes to the telecommunication revolution, computers, space travel, genetic engineering and oral contraceptives. And stuff! My biggest challenge is to staunch the flow of stuff into my life. But these great successes - economic growth, technology, consumer goods - have come at enormous cost: the degradation of our very life support systems - air, water, soil, energy and biodiversity.
We are now the most numerous species of mammal on Earth and each of the 6.6 billion of us must breathe, drink, eat, be clothed and find shelter. So the mere act of living means our species has a heavy collective ecological footprint. When that is amplified by technology (computers, TV, cars, etc) used on our behalf, our hyperconsumption and the global economy, we have been transformed into a force that is now altering the biological, chemical and physical features of the planet on a geological scale.
Experts estimate that more than 50,000 species now become extinct annually. More than half the planet's forests are gone, and if we continue to destroy them as we are doing there will be no large intact forests left within two decades. We cannot escape the toxic debris of our industrial activity. Recently, three members of parliament in Ottawa were tested for more than 80 toxic chemicals and were shocked to learn that all three carried dozens.
The oceans are being depleted. A global study led by biologist Boris Worm, of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, predicts that if habitat destruction and overfishing continue, every exploited marine species will be commercially extinct by 2048. And for 20 years, climatologists have warned us that human activity is altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere, with consequent climate change occurring at unprecedented speed.
I could go on listing the depressing litany of problems, but the need to take serious action on all of these issues is converging, and we must make major decisions to change course.
How did we arrive at this moment? As a biologist, I tend to view things from an evolutionary perspective. DNA studies reveal that we emerged as a species in Africa some 150,000 years ago - a mere blink in geological time. The world was a very different place back then. There were still woolly mammoths roaming the Earth, sabre-toothed tigers, giant sloths in North America and 3-metre tall moa birds.
Spectacular trajectory
Let's suppose scientists have discovered time travel, so we take a time machine and hover above the Rift Valley in east Africa 150,000 years ago. The plains are a spectacular sight, covered with immense herds of mammals; vast flocks of birds fill the air; rivers and lakes teem with fish and reptiles. The clusters of furless, upright apes who are our ancestors are not that impressive. Those early humans are not numerous, large, strong or fast, or endowed with special sensory abilities. There is little to indicate the spectacular trajectory this naked ape is about to follow.
But if we watch them for a while, we can recognise their special secret: their behaviour reveals that they are intelligent. The human brain endowed us with a massive memory, insatiable curiosity, inventiveness, and an ability to think in abstracts. These qualities more than compensated for our lack of physical and sensory abilities. That brain created a notion of a future, even though the only reality is the present and our memories of the past. And because that brain invented a future, we recognised that we could affect that future by what we do in the present. If we look ahead, we can see where opportunities and dangers lie, and by following a deliberate path we can avoid the hazards, while exploiting the opportunities. Foresight, I believe, was one of the most important abilities that enabled us to survive and flourish, and continues to underlie our explosive success as a species.
Today, we have all the amplified foresight conferred by scientists, computers, engineers and telecommunications, and for more than 40 years, leading scientists have been looking ahead and warning us that humanity is heading along a dangerous and unsustainable path, while there are benefits and opportunities in moving along a different direction. For example, in 1992, a remarkable document called World Scientists' Warning to Humanity was signed by more than 1,500 senior scientists, including more than half of all Nobel prizewinners alive at that time.
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