O Canada, Another Election?

Canada is by far America's biggest trading partner. In 2004, trade between the two nations totaled $445 billion, nearly as much as America's next two largest trading partners, China and Mexico, combined. That same year, Canada ran the third-biggest tab to the United States too, a trade deficit totaling $67 billion. Canada also ranks as a top source of U.S. immigrants. More than 100,000 Canadians have moved south since 2000, and more than 1,000 of those settled in Virginia. That falls well below the population moving up from Mexico and Central America, but the employment Canadians seek here leans more toward well-paid, highly skilled fields with tight job markets. During the same period, 14,000 Americans emigrated north. Despite the closeness, cross-border relations have been chilly in recent years. Canadian leaders have been at loggerheads with the Bush administration, often justifiably so, over timber tariffs, drug importation, missile defense, border security, the war in Iraq, global warming and same-sex marriage, to name just a few. The outcome of the Jan. 23 election is, therefore, worth watching for hints about the direction in which U.S.-Canadian relations are headed. Prime Minister Paul Martin last week received a vote of no confidence from Parliament. Consequently, a rapid-fire election season is under way, with Canada's four main political parties seeking the most seats in the lower House of Commons. Martin's moderate Liberal Party -- yes, the Liberal Party is the moderate one -- will face opposition from New Democrats on the left and Conservatives on the right. Meanwhile, the separatist Bloc Québécois Party will try to reinvigorate its drive for secession. A shift to the left or right could lead, respectively, to frostier or warmer relations with the current leadership in Washington. Successful secession by Quebec would create a new nation on the border. No matter what the vote tally, though, the outcome's effects will ripple through America. Ignoring them is not an option. http://www.roanoke.com/editorials/wb/wb/xp-43259 [Proofreader's note: this article was edited for spelling and typos on December 5, 2005]

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