Only Ourselves To Blame For Chaotic Weather

As far as I know, modern Toronto has never had an ice storm like the one in 1998. Until recently, we used to think of Hurricane Hazel in 1954 as the storm of the century. Yet, in the last two years alone, we've had storms that have far surpassed the deluge that Hazel delivered. So, why not a massive ice storm in Toronto? We are living in a new age of chaotic weather patterns, and the sad thing is, there have been abundant warnings over the past 30 years that this was going to happen if we didn't mend our ways. Chaotic weather is a sure sign that global warming is accelerating. It happens because climate change is upsetting natural systems, and they are struggling to find a new equilibrium. As the warming increases, so will the struggle until at some stage, a tipping point will be reached and weather patterns will flip into a new equilibrium. Opinions abound over what this new equilibrium will be. So far, I can't make out any consensus but it doesn't stretch the imagination in the least to think that in the chaotic run-up to a flip, Toronto could experience a devastating ice storm. Fifty-one years ago, Hazel dumped 213.6 millimetres (mm) of rain over three days. But less than a month ago, a storm in Toronto poured down 100 mm in an hour, causing extensive damage. In July last year, 240 mm of rain fell in Peterborough in barely five hours. And in September last year, the remnants of Hurricane Francis struck Ottawa with 137 mm of rain, which was more than it had received in one day since records were first compiled in 1882. What made it particularly significant was that before the storm, Ottawa was experiencing the greatest drought ever recorded. In addition to torrential rain, tornadoes have become common and central Ontario now has a "tornado alley." It's the same the world over. The year started with 60 centimetres of snow dumped in the mountains near Los Angeles. Two weeks ago, Mumbai in India had 944 mm of rain in one day, breaking all records and leading to the deaths of more than 1,000 people. Spain and Portugal are having the worst droughts on record. In Louisiana, Katrina has given way to a search for blame. But the search is a sideshow because, in a variation on the famous line from the Pogo comic strip, the real culprits is us. It's everyone who leaves a car idling when it could be shut off. It's those who tolerate a food system where every item on a dinner plate travels an average of 1,500 kilometres. It's developers who build housing that takes no advantage of solar energy. It's people who shop till they drop, buying stuff they don't need. It's a country where we are producing 24 per cent more carbon dioxide than we did in 1990, although we have promised under the Kyoto accord to produce an average of 6 per cent less between 2008 and 2012. It's voters who tolerate a tax system that gives huge breaks to oil companies and nothing but crumbs to producers of renewable energy. There is so much momentum built into global warming that even if all emissions of carbon dioxide stopped tomorrow, global warming would continue to accelerate for years before the trend would ease. But all is not yet lost. The City of Toronto has cut greenhouse gases from government operations by 42 per cent below 1990 levels — an astonishing achievement. It offers hope that maybe we won't have to face a flip if we follow the city's example. But, inevitably, there'll be many more Katrinas, more ice storms, more torrential rains and winds. So, we'll have to make security checks on everything from roads and bridges, to buildings, power systems and — especially — sewers that were designed to the standard of protection set by Hazel, the once-upon-a-time, once-in-a-century storm. We're in new territory now, and it's uncharted. Cameron Smith can be reached at camsmith@kingston.net. http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_PrintFriendly&c=Article&cid=1126302610944&call_pageid=968332188774

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