SES poll results most accurate
Date: Tuesday, June 29 2004
CPAC and SES Research ran daily polls during the entire campaign, and they were the closest of all pollsters when the election was over.
Their numbers showed quite clearly that Martin's speech about the NDP to switch to the Libs actually happened, and it worked in Martin's favour. The numbers speak for themselves.
In the 2004 Federal Election, CPAC-SES launched the first publicly available nightly tracking initiative. We were the first to spot all the major shifts and trends in the election and shared with Canadians the daily pulse of the campaign.
SES was the only national pollster to show a gap opening between the Liberals and the Conservatives. All the other polling firms showed a virtual tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
What happened in the last weekend of the election?
In the period between the last night of CPAC-SES tracking on Thursday and election day a modest number of voters with the NDP strategically shifted to the Liberals. Martin's weekend efforts with NDP-Liberal switchers were enough to propel the Liberals into a minority government.
To follow is a comparison of the CPAC-SES final tracking completed Thursday night and yesterday's election outcome. Our final tracking on Thursday
evening was based on 1,200 voters and was accurate 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liberals (Election 36.7%, SES 34.2%)
Conservatives (Election 29.6%, SES 30.4%)
NDP (Election 15.7%, SES 19.5%)
BQ (Election 12.4%, SES 12.2%)
Green (Election 4.3%, SES 3.7%)
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Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President & CEO