Vive Le Canada

Polls can be very, very wrong
Date: Thursday, January 12 2006
Topic:


Strategic Thoughts
By David Schreck
January 8, 2006

Vancouver-Centre
Province Poll

As only a tab could, the front page of Sunday's Vancouver Province screamed "Svend Trailing: Poll". The accompanying article, with Ian Baily's byline, headlined "Ring incident haunts Svend", reported that the paper commissioned Mustel Group Poll to conduct a poll in Vancouver-Centre, a riding that has gone Liberal since 1993. (It was last won by the CCF, predecessor to the NDP, in a 1948 by-election only to be lost to the Liberals in 1949.) Despite the voting history of the riding, it is interesting this time because two high profile personalities, Svend Robinson and Hedy Fry, are duking it out.

The paper did not compare the poll it commissioned with the results from 2004; they are as follows:


....................2004 Election ...........Jan 5-6, 2005 Poll

Liberal ...................40.3% .............................41%

Conservative....... 19.2%.............................. 19%

NDP....................... 32.3%.............................. 33%

Green...................... 6.8% .................................7%

If the poll is correct, nothing has changed in 18 months as far as voting intention goes in Vancouver Centre. Rather than using that as the story line, the paper brought up an old news story, and made that the headline.

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[Proofreader's note: this article was edited for spelling and typos on January 12, 2006]

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